Metabets

Metabets was a meta-game where you could place bets on the probability of various events occurring in BattleMaster. It was quite a bit of fun while it lasted, but after about a year, interest had dwindled and it was closed down again.

This page is left for historical purposes, or in case we ever start it up again.

Quickstart

For those of you with no patience whatsoever, this is a quick overview to let you get started placing bets right away.

You start out with $100.00 (an imaginary currency) and with this you can buy and sell shares. Shares are priced at between 1¢ and 99¢. Shares pay their owners 100¢($1.00) if the claim is true. If the claim is false, the owners of the shares receive nothing, but anyone owning negative shares receives 100¢($1.00) per negative share. Prices are always listed in cents(¢).

Basically, you should buy shares if you think that they are undervalued, and sell shares if you think they are overvalued. For example, assume the claim is “Tom will burn the BattleMaster server before January 1, 2007”. You think that Tom is is a pretty reasonable person, but who knows, stranger things have happened. You decide that there is 5% chance of this happening. Therefore, you should buy shares in this claim if someone is selling for 4¢ or less, and sell if someone is buying for 6¢ or more. Or perhaps you believe that Tom is a pyromaniac, and that there is an 80% chance Tom will burn the server before January 1, 2007. In that case, you should buy at 79¢ or less, and sell at 81¢ or more.

It is important to know that you can sell shares you do not have. This will cost you money, and you will then own a negative number of shares. This is the only way that shares can exist initially.

The above information is all you need to start trading on Metabets. You can come back and read the rest at your leisure.

The Math

Assume that you had decided you would buy 10 shares of FIREBM at 65%(65¢ each). You place a "limit order" to "buy" 10 shares at 65%. If Bob comes along a few minutes later, and wants those shares, he places a "limit order" to "sell" 10 shares at 65%. If nether you nor bob owned any shares, then:

• You now own 10 shares in FIREBM. It cost you $6.50 ($0.65×10)
• Bob now owns -10 shares in FIREBM. It cost him $3.50 (($1.00-$0.65)×10)

You and bob together spent $10.00. You will receive $10.00 ($1.00 per share) if the claim is eventually judged true, or Bob will receive $10.00 ($1.00 per negative share) if the claim is eventually judged false.

Speculating

Of course, there are faster ways to make money. If you sell shares for more than you paid for them, you will make a profit. You might even initially sell shares you do not have, expecting the price to drop. Later, you can purchase the shares at a lower price and make a profit! The possibilities are endless.