War on the Islands

Old Rancagua is now (Noevember) the ONLY realm in East Continent, engaged in an offensive war.

Although Old Ranacgua has stated a lot of "reasons" concerning its purely imperialistic attack on the Islands (see relevant article in Avamar Times, mainly it only tries to find an excuse to keep the war going with only one objective: to found a colony directly controlled by Old Rancagua in the Islands. With other words to establish a puppet government in a puppet realm which -as Old Rancagua believes- will stay forever under its direct control.

However, experience has shown that such puppet states can't survive for long. If the nobles of a realm are not satisfied with the conditions there, sooner or later they will take the situation at their hands and declare true independence for the formerly puppet realm. Thus any effort of Old Rancagua is doomed to fail in the long run.

So Old Rancagua, instead of working for peace, instead of bridging any differences that exists and try to drag the Islands on its side peacefully, prefers a direct assault with ambigous results. An assault that costs thousands of lives and offfers nothing more than training to its warmongering so-called "nobles".

What results such a brutal attack can have? Let's analyse the situation and the possible outcomes of the conflict:

1. The War goes on forever This is one of the worst options. It has direct devastating effects for all realms engaged in the conflict. While the rest of the continent enjoys peace for first time in history and all realms prosper, Old Rancagua and the Island Realms will fall behind on terms of economy, diplomacy, trade, food supply, cultural achievements, great events and entertainment (like the tournaments held in Sirion and Perdan) etc. In the long run the engaged parties will be weakened enough for another realm to attack them and without much resistance conquer them.

2. Old Rancagua brings allies to help This is equally devastating with the first possible outcome. It will ignite another continental war and a regional conflict will become the spark that will become the flame to consume the whole continent and give an end to the short-lived continental peace. Sooner or later more realms will either find an excuse to enter the conflict or find the opportunity to attack a realm which army will be away, fighting in the Islands.

3. Old Rancagua manages to conquer the Islands This is the best option in terms of losses of human lives. However the establishment of a puppet realm will become in the long run the reason for another war, maybe even more devastating this time and maybe absolutely destructive. Young nobles will sooner or later realise that they live in realm directly controlled by another and -as already happened in Kalmar Islands- they will rebel. There is not a single noble in the continent wishing to live under the manipulation of another realm. Save those that will keep the council positions for themselves.

4. Old Rancagua realizes that there is no future in war and tries a different approach This would be ideal. However how feasible this solution will be as more and more young nobles join the Island Realms and Old Rancagua and learn only to hate their enemies? How willing the future councils of the engaged realms will be even to discuss a peacefull solution? Maybe this option is already a Utopia.

Summarizing we must point out, that Old Rancagua is definately not ruled by fools. They know very well the different options and where they lead. But they are unwilling to accept the truth. This war whatever the outcome is, is a dead end with only a grim future waiting. Then why do they insist on the war, instead of trying to build bridges and correct the mistakes of the past? It is simple. This way they satisfy the warmongering, but nevertheless sound minority in their realm. This way they make they secure their positions.

Peace is much harder than war. Peace will bring arguments. Will bring forward discussions for more freedom. Will initiate debates on rotation of power. It may even question the rights of the ruling minority. And this is REALLY devastating for a realm that lacks a sound peacefull background. Old Ranacgua's history is full of unrest. Worthy nobles have departed not being able to meet the corruption of the ruling class. Others have been banned. Rebellion have taken place.

So, the answer is simple.

Why Old Ranacgua insists on a war that will end unfavourably anyway? Because Old Rancagua is completely incapable of living in peace, at least maintaining the current order of things in any other possible way than war!