Carmel Family/Market
Contents
Practical Seasonal Marketing
This strategy was devised by Roldan Carmel.
Successful marketing strategies depend on appropriate trade and storage values. Both must account for seasonal productivity variations and storage must also be sufficient to buffer against adverse weather, conflicts and unstable markets. I recommend the following coherent strategy which uses a fixed trade value, providing predictable storage values and easy management. For demand regions it spreads the internal buying costs evenly over a year and for all regions requires lower storage capacity than “store or starve” strategies which rely on costly summer and autumn bulk buying to survive winter and spring. Please read the links in the References section; I found them invaluable.
Calendar 1 week = 7 days 1 season = 3 weeks = 21 days 1 Year = 4 seasons = 84 days
Trade Value
If P=gross summer production then autumn=2P; winter=0.25P and spring=0.75P
If C=consumption then average net production=((P-C)+(2P -C)+(0.25P -C)+(0.75P -C))/4=(4P -4C)/4=P-C
- average net production=net summer production.
- AND net summer production is the fixed trade value which can be transacted each season. (It is practical to trade a third of this value weekly.)
A positive value is for selling and a negative value is for buying.
Storage Value
During summer the fixed trade value keeps storage level constant.
During autumn net production is greater than the fixed trade value allowing stocks to build for the winter and spring.
During winter and spring net production is less than the fixed trade value requiring stocks to supply the difference.
Seasonal storage targets:
current season’s store(S1) = previous season’s store(S0) + current season’s net production – fixed trade value(P-C)
Summer S1=S0+(P-C)-(P-C)=S0 Autumn S1=S0+(2*P-C)-(P-C)=S0+P Winter S1=(S0+P)+(1/4*P-C)-(P-C)=S0+P/4 Spring S1=(S0+1/4*P)+(3/4*P-C)-(P-C)=S0
Summer Autumn Winter Spring S0 S0+P S0+P/4 S0
If a region is running a deficit it will automatically trigger reduced distribution to 25% rations when storage is below 4 days net summer production. The value of S0 must at least cover that plus an arbitrary buffer. Assuming a worst case of zero production and adding another 7 days consumption to cover other eventualities S0 could equal 11 days consumption for example.
Worked examples
Notes:
- Empirically peasants consume 2 bushels per 1000 per day
- Calculations are based on 100% production; i.e. P = 1 * Food
a) Rural supply region.
Tranquil, Swordfell. - http://battlemaster.org/testing/RegionDetails.php?ID=177
Population: 14100
Food: 508 bushels per week
P=508*3=1524 bushels per summer season
C=14100*2*21/1000=592 bushels per summer season
Fixed trade value:
- Selling=(1524-592)/3=311 bushels per week
Storage targets:
- S0=(592/21)*11=310 bushels
Summer Autumn Winter Spring 310 1834 691 310
b) City demand region.
Flowrestown, Swordfell. - http://battlemaster.org/testing/RegionDetails.php?ID=180
Population: 65200
Food: 143 bushels per week
P=143*3=429 bushels per summer season
C=65200*2*21/1000=2738 bushels per summer season
Fixed trade value:
- Buying=(429-2738)/3=770 bushels per week
Storage targets:
- S0=(2738/21)*11=1434 bushels
Summer Autumn Winter Spring 1434 1863 1541 1434
