The Librarium/The Trials of Alowca: A Study

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Introduction

This study was inspired by recent discussions of the problems faced by Alowca both within the city and across the ducal lands. Although it was clear to all that Alowca had undergone considerable deterioration over a lengthy period of time, it was almost impossible to discern how or why. Opinions clashed as to whether neglect or long-standing pressures were the culprit without either side being able to produce a convincing hypothesis or satisfactory answers. It struck me that the only way to get to the bottom of it would be to look at the daily reports and to let the facts contained within speak for themselves as to Alowca's ails.

Of course, getting to the bottom of Alowca's problems is much more important than simply assigning blame. The historical record shows the strong independent streak of Alowca's people which assuredly contributed to her recent history spent in anarchy. Yet there's little to no knowledge of just how strong those feelings are or particularly why they're so explosive. For Alowca to be best ruled in the future, we would need to know more. It is only with that knowledge that Alowca can eventually be managed with perfection.

The Study

Before the hard work could begin, a visit to the Alowcan Tax and Records Bureau was required to collect the previous month's reports. The clerks of that institution are legendary for their lax service, regularly making everyone from merchants, nobles and common citizens wait hours and days for their requests to be fulfilled. I'm pleased to say that when it came to it, they didn't dare cross the Baron Irdalni. I was promptly handed records for the last 30 days and I could quickly get to work making sense of the data within.

The first thing I did was to take note of every separate event recorded within Alowca's daily reports for the period. From there, I could then tally up the number of instances of each occurrence to get an accurate idea where Alowcan angst and problems were coming from. Following from that, I took note of the daily fluctuations in morale, loyalty and productivity within Alowca in order to verify the extent of her deterioration independent of the actions of those involved in maintenance.

Finally, I collated the months weekly tax revenues in order to provide a useful bench mark and contrast to all else that was being discovered. Overall, the resulting statistics provide some interesting reading and cry out for further analysis.

Daily Reports

Report Instances

Morale rises

Morale falls

Loyalty to the realm rises

Loyalty to the realm falls

Production rises

Production falls

Production is being restored through regular repairs

Low morale leads to unrest and strikes, which hurts productivity

Rumours speak of increased unrest

Good estate support reduces independence

The people here dislike being ruled by us

Some people consider the tax rate as too high

War, looting or unrest makes the peasants unhappy

Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper

Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper greatly

The people are already in a good mood for the upcoming festival, and their goodwill toward the realm rises

The festival in the region boosts spirits and goodwill toward the realm considerably

7

15

1

19

1

6

1

7

22

30

17

14

3

12

8

1

1

Before getting to the bad, we can look to the good. For 30 consecutive days, Alowca had good estate support reducing independence. From the beginning we can see that there is significant infrastructure and support in place for the management of public ills, but the greater trend is for the bad. For all that, loyalty rose only once during the period. On 19 other days loyalty fell in spite of the mitigation of estates organised to ease independence tensions.

For 22 days of the period there were rumours of increased unrest. For 17 days, the people disliked being ruled by us. Together, these two factors fall a couple of days either side of falls in loyalty but the trend certainly seems to suggest that the two combined did much to harm efforts at reducing independence. For all the good work of estates, they appear wholly insufficient in measuring up to Alowca's problems. Indeed, in addition to all that it should be noted there were 12 days were distance from the capital caused anarchists to prosper and a further eight days were anarchists prospered greatly. It isn't all that surprising that these effects cumulatively caused immense damage to Alowca's stability or that low morale would eventually spark seven separate days of strikes and further unrest.

The populace in Alowca are too restive for Alowca's natural infrastructure to be any help in containing the threat of anarchy and independence. Distance from the capital gives them a mischievous outlook and helps grievances to fester rather than to heal. It is notable too as a background, that independence never fell once in the period and neither were there any records of birth or migrations into Alowca. Knowing the clerks at the Alowcan Tax and Records Bureau as well as I do, that can only mean one thing: the population shrivelled and the tax base fell during the continuing unrest of the period.

Alowcan Statistics

Largest Rise Largest Fall Combined Rises Combined Falls Net Position

Morale

Loyalty

Production

10%

3%

3%
-11%

-10%

-16%
32%

3%

3%
-90%

-116%

-48%
-58%

-113%

-45%

Whilst one might extrapolate from the daily reports above that Alowca was simply left to rot by the nobility during her troubles, it is not a fact that is borne out by the statistics collected from them. It takes only a glance to realise that the statistics recorded were unremittingly bleak. Indeed, that morale rose by 32% is somewhat of an aberration, with a festival held late in the period contributing nearly half that figure alone and accounting for the only double digit rise in statistics across the entire period.

Nevertheless, it can be seen that there has to have been some furious work over the period, to says the least. If the nobility had rested on their laurels, would Alowca still submit to civilised rule today? It seems unlikely. If left to their own devices the people of Alowca certainly would have risen up and no amount of militia or goodwill could stop them. Without noble interference, Alowca would have spiralled into anarchy of her own accord.

Productivity appears to have been more or less directly affected by the unrest across the city. Each time morale hit new lows, strikes would begin, productivity would fall further and unrest would worsen. Not being able to control falling morale led directly to further unrest and Alowcan industry grinding to a halt. It would have been better for all concerned if those workers had stayed in their jobs. It would have meant fewer people out on the streets peddling seditious garbage and stopped Alowcan temperament from worsening yet further.

Tax Revenues

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5

Revenue

562
557
425
291
277

Whilst it's tempting to draw a direct correlation between growing unrest and falling revenues, tax income is not necessarily reliable indicator of the amount of unrest in Alowca. In fact, it can go some way to disguising the true extent of problems in the duchy. Taking those first two good tax takes alone, loyalty fell 38% within that period. In just that short time you would have needed daily rises of over 4% just to keep loyalty stable at it's initial level before even thinking of morale or control.

Granted, revenues fell yet further during the period, but against a backdrop of renewed efforts to restore control. Long after the rioters have been cleared from the streets and police forces have taken to patrolling every corner, the economic cost continues to be felt. When it comes to production and tax collection in Alowca, it seems we are as much slaves to fortune as we are hostages to a vindictive and restive populace.

Conclusions

The people of Alowca, whilst showing some signs that they are civilised once more, nevertheless host a deadly contagion. A significant minority appear wholly unable to reconcile themselves to being part of a greater whole or to contribute toward the public good. For as long as men wish to rule Alowca, there will always be war with the raving seditionists and lunatics who prefer anarchy to any other state of being. They will always dream of a past and glories that don't exist.

To maintain stable and peaceful rule of Alowca requires a firm and just hand to be perpetually hovering above. For there to always be someone to strike out at the first sign of trouble. But it can't be left to the Duke alone. If Alowca is ever to truly know a measure of stability and prosperity as she once did, it will take the persistent efforts of many as opposed to the few.

In an ideal world, Alowca will always have a Courtier at hand to organise maintenance efforts; someone else to hold court and listen to the people's ills; another noble to organise rigorous policing and yet another to lead on civic projects. In concert, they could restore Alowca to perfection and keep her that way for an eternity until the Colonies finally vanished under the waves. Anything less, and you're already struggling to hold back the tide.

Raw Reports

  • 23/06/11

Alowca: Good estate support reduces independence. Morale falls 5%. Loyalty to your realm falls 3%.

  • 24/06/11

Alowca: The people here do not like being ruled by us. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale falls 2%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 25/06/11

Alowca: The people here do not like being ruled by us. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale falls 4%. Loyalty to your realm falls 3%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 26/06/11

Alowca: The people here do not like being ruled by us. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale rises 4%. Loyalty to your realm rises 3%.

  • 27/06/11

Alowca: Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale rises 6%. Loyalty to your realm falls 8%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 28/06/11

Alowca: Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale falls 9%. Loyalty to your realm falls 10%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 29/06/11

Alowca: The people here do not like being ruled by us. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale falls 4%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 30/06/11

Alowca: The people here do not like being ruled by us. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper greatly. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale falls 5%. Loyalty to your realm falls 8%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 01/07/11

Alowca: The people here do not like being ruled by us. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale falls 9%. Loyalty to your realm falls 6%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 02/07/11

Alowca: The people here do not like being ruled by us. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper. Low morale leads to unrest and strikes, which hurts productivity. Good estate support reduces independence. Production falls 6%. Morale falls 11%. Loyalty to your realm falls 3%.

  • 03/07/11

Alowca: The people here do not like being ruled by us. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper greatly. Low morale leads to unrest and strikes, which hurts productivity. Good estate support reduces independence. Production falls 2%. Loyalty to your realm falls 4%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 04/07/11

Alowca: The people here dislike being ruled by us. Low morale leads to unrest and strikes, which hurts productivity. Good estate support reduces independence.

  • 05/07/11

Alowca: War, looting or unrest makes the peasants unhappy. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper. Low morale leads to unrest and strikes, which hurts productivity. Good estate support reduces independence. Production falls 3%. Morale rises 6%. Loyalty to your realm falls 4%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 06/07/11

Alowca: Some people consider the tax rate as too high. War, looting or unrest makes the peasants unhappy. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper greatly. Low morale leads to unrest and strikes, which hurts productivity. Good estate support reduces independence. Production falls 14%. Loyalty to your realm falls 10%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 07/07/11

Alowca: Some people consider the tax rate as too high. The people here dislike being ruled by us. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper greatly. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale falls 4%. Loyalty to your realm falls 10%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 08/07/11

Alowca: Some people consider the tax rate as too high. The people here dislike being ruled by us. Low morale leads to unrest and strikes, which hurts productivity. Good estate support reduces independence. Production falls 7%. Morale falls 7%.

  • 09/07/11

Alowca: Some people consider the tax rate as too high. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper. Good estate support reduces independence. Loyalty to your realm falls 4%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 10/07/11

Alowca: Some people consider the tax rate as too high. Good estate support reduces independence. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 11/07/11

Alowca: Some people consider the tax rate as too high. The people here dislike being ruled by us. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale falls 3%. Loyalty to your realm falls 4%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 12/07/11

Alowca: Some people consider the tax rate as too high. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper greatly. Low morale leads to unrest and strikes, which hurts productivity. Good estate support reduces independence. Production falls 16%. Morale falls 3%. Loyalty to your realm falls 8%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 13/07/11

Alowca: Some people consider the tax rate as too high. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale rises 2%.

  • 14/07/11

Alowca: Some people consider the tax rate as too high. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper. The people are already in a good mood for the upcoming festival, and their goodwill toward the realm rises.Production is being restored through regular repairs. Good estate support reduces independence. Production rises 3%. Morale rises 10%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 15/07/11

Alowca: Some people consider the tax rate as too high. The people here dislike being ruled by us. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper greatly. The festival in the region boosts spirits and goodwill toward the realm considerably.Good estate support reduces independence. Morale rises 4%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 16/07/11

Alowca: Some people consider the tax rate as too high. The people here dislike being ruled by us. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper greatly. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale falls 11%. Loyalty to your realm falls 5%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 17/07/11

Alowca: Some people consider the tax rate as too high. The people here dislike being ruled by us. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale falls 3%. Loyalty to your realm falls 3%.

  • 18/07/11

Alowca: Some people consider the tax rate as too high. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper. Good estate support reduces independence. Loyalty to your realm falls 4%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 19/07/11

Alowca: Some people consider the tax rate as too high. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper greatly. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale falls 5%. Loyalty to your realm falls 9%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 20/07/11

Alowca: Some people consider the tax rate as too high. The people here dislike being ruled by us. Distance from the capital causes anarchists to prosper greatly. Good estate support reduces independence. Loyalty to your realm falls 6%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 21/07/11

Alowca: The people here dislike being ruled by us. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale rises 4%.

  • 22/07/11

Alowca: The people here dislike being ruled by us. Good estate support reduces independence. Morale falls 5%. Loyalty to your realm falls 4%. Rumours speak of increased unrest.

  • 23/07/11

Alowca: The people here dislike being ruled by us. Good estate support reduces independence. Rumours speak of increased unrest.